Extreme Bitcoin Bearish Sentiment Signals Buying Zone

The coming months may feel uneventful and discouraging, which is a period where fading interest, not panic, defines market behavior.

A long-term sentiment indicator for Bitcoin (BTC) has entered extreme bearish territory, the sort that analyst Joao Wedson says comes right before market bottoms.

According to him, the zone, which often sees maximum despair, with retail traders getting exhausted and narratives turning fully negative, represents the perfect conditions for experienced investors to start accumulating.

Multi-Year Indicator Flashes Late-Stage Fear Signal

In an April 7 post on X, Wedson explained that the 720-day Trend Barrier Bull-Bear Indicator (TBBI) is currently sitting in deeply negative territory, which in the past appeared when liquidity had been drained from the market, and smart money began quietly absorbing supply.

In Wyckoff terms, for those who follow the framework, the analyst said the current setup lines up with Selling Climaxes and final shakeouts, and according to him, it is not the start of a collapse but the end of one.

“From here, downside still exists, but tends to be more limited,” they wrote. “Any further drops are likely to be smaller in magnitude. A sharp move like a -$15k shakeout is possible, the kind that creates one final wave of panic across the market.”

He says that in the next few weeks, sentiment will stay depressed, with the price of BTC either moving sideways or dipping slightly, making the market feel “hopeless.”

But Wedson thinks that this is when things will start to change. He said that he personally expects to become more bullish as the market loses interest. He also said that the fear and disinterest will last for at least five more months, which OG investors should use to buy more.

Short-term positioning data also adds to the fragile picture, with Glassnode reporting today that BTC is trading within a “negative gamma pocket” between $65,000 and $70,000, where dealer hedging activity can amplify volatility. Per the analytics firm, there’s resistance building near $72,000, but thinner support below has left the downside exposed to weak momentum.

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Meanwhile, the flagship cryptocurrency briefly passed the $70,000 level after reports emerged of a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. However, the price was rejected soon after and had fallen back near $68,000 at the time of writing, down nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.

Historical Drawdowns Suggest Milder Correction Than Past Cycles

Wedson is worried about the bearish tone in sentiment, but data from another analyst, Axel Adler Jr., shows that Bitcoin is trading just above the 1.25x realized price level, at $67,675, a zone he pointed out is often treated as a dividing line between moderate corrections and deeper bear phases.

He suggested that as long as the price quickly reclaims this boundary after brief dips below, then a gradual recovery toward the 1.7x realized price level at $92,038 is still possible. However, a sustained close below $67,675 would raise the probability of a move toward the $54,000 to $58,000 range.