Vanguard’s ETF approval triggered the strongest buy-side futures activity since 2023, signaling renewed institutional momentum
The price of Bitcoin has recovered to around $93,000, marking a full rebound from a steep drop to $84,000 just days ago.
This swift rebound has also coincided with a historic shift in institutional participation, with data revealing the most forceful single-day buy-side sentiment in the perpetual futures market since the current bull cycle began nearly three years ago.
A Historic Shift in Market Sentiment
According to pseudonymous analyst CoinCare, on December 2, the buy-to-sell ratio for market orders on perpetual futures exchanges hit 1.17, its highest point since January 2023. This ratio, which compares aggressive buy volume to sell volume, decisively moved above 1, signaling that buyer initiative heavily outweighed selling pressure for the first time in this cycle.
CoinCare described this as a hallmark of a market transitioning into an expansion phase, where structural capital flows begin to increase. According to them, one of the main catalysts for this surge was the December 2 decision by investment giant Vanguard to allow its over 50 million brokerage clients to trade spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana ETFs.
The move, influenced by new CEO and former BlackRock executive Salim Ramji, unlocked a massive new pool of potential capital, and reaction was immediate, with Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noting that a large wave of Vanguard clients appeared to move “all at once.”
This shift is also supported by improving macro liquidity conditions, suggesting the environment for risk assets like Bitcoin is becoming more favorable.
“Taken together, the data suggests the current bull cycle is unlikely to be near its terminal stage,” wrote the analyst. “Structural ETF adoption, revived institutional participation, and an early turn in liquidity conditions all point toward continued expansion rather than exhaustion.”
However, while the rally has been strong, the expert cautioned that there still remain systemic risks, including financial stress in Japan, which require monitoring.
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Broader Market Implications
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $93,000, up about 7% in the last 24 hours and nearly 6% over seven days, according to CoinGecko.
The ripple effects of BTC’s rebound are being felt across the crypto landscape, helping push Ethereum back above $3,000, and triggering major altcoins like Solana and Cardano to post double-digit percentage gains.
And there’s potential for things to get even better, with analysts at XWIN Research Japan saying that the scale of potential inflows from the $11 trillion asset manager is eye-watering.
Their estimates suggest that even a tiny fraction of Vanguard’s assets flowing into crypto ETFs could inject tens of billions of dollars into the sector, exceeding the total inflows seen in the first year of U.S. spot ETF trading.
According to them, it represents a pivotal moment, where crypto moves from niche adoption into a true phase of mainstream institutional acceptance.
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