XRP Retakes Crucial Resistance, Is the Breakout Finally Starting?

XRP is trading at $1.45 as the second week of May is underway, and for the first time in several months, the technical picture carries a genuine sense of compression and potential energy.

A symmetrical triangle that has been forming since February is now at its apex, with the price breaking above the upper boundary and the RSI climbing to above 50. The broader market’s momentum provides a backdrop that XRP has not had the luxury of in most prior setups this cycle.

Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

Since February, XRP has been carving out a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, formed by a series of lower highs and higher lows converging into an increasingly tight range. The upper boundary sits around $1.43 and has been broken to the upside over the weekend.

The higher boundary of the large descending channel and the 100-day moving average (located around the $1.40 mark) have both been broken as well. With the RSI recovering and building momentum above 50, almost all signals point to a potential surge in the coming weeks.

A daily close above the $1.50 psychological level would confirm the bullish technical development and open the path toward the next significant zone at $1.80, where the 200-day moving average is also located. On the contrary, a rejection and drop back below $1.40 would invalidate the pattern entirely and put the $1.20 February low back in immediate focus.

The BTC Pair

The XRP/BTC pair has also staged a meaningful recovery from the deeply oversold extreme reached in early May, when the RSI touched approximately 25. From the lows near 1730–1740 sats, the market has bounced back to 1800 sats, now testing the horizontal resistance zone formed by the February low. The RSI has also recovered to the 45–50 range, confirming the oversold relief bounce, while also demonstrating a clear bullish divergence.

The 1800 sats resistance zone is the first real test of this bounce. A clean breakout and close above it would open the path toward the 2000 sats area, where the 100-day moving average is also located at the moment. That, in turn, remains the minimum threshold required to suggest XRP is beginning to recover ground against Bitcoin rather than simply bouncing from an extreme.

Still, the broader downtrend on this pair is intact, as both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to decline well above the price, and until one of them is reclaimed, any BTC-relative gains remain corrective rather than structural.