Intel stock surges 25% pre-market on strong Q1 earnings, Foundry growth

Intel’s stock surged over 25% in pre-market trading following a strong Q1 earnings report. On Polymarket, the chance of NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 now sits at 89.5% YES, down slightly from 90% a day ago.

Intel’s Foundry segment drove much of the reaction, contributing $5.4 billion in revenue, up 20% sequentially. The NVIDIA market still prices NVIDIA at 89.5% YES, so Intel’s earnings beat barely moved the needle. If Intel’s Foundry growth continues at this pace, though, the gap between the two companies’ market caps could narrow heading into June.

Daily volume on the “largest company by market cap in June” market is $4,869 in USDC. It would take roughly $48,168 to move the market 5 points, which limits the effect of smaller trades. Over the past 24 hours, the price barely moved, suggesting traders are waiting to see whether Intel’s post-earnings momentum holds.

Intel’s earnings beat, combined with its positioning for U.S. CHIPS Act funding, makes it a more credible competitor than it was a quarter ago. At 11¢, a NO share on NVIDIA is cheap. A YES share pays $1 if NVIDIA holds its lead by June 30, a 1.11x return. The contrarian case rests on whether Intel can sustain this Foundry growth rate and whether NVIDIA faces any stumbles of its own.

Watch for NVIDIA’s next earnings or product announcements, which will likely determine whether this market stays pinned near 90%. Intel’s continued execution and any regulatory or geopolitical shifts around chip manufacturing could also move the odds. Jensen Huang’s response to Intel’s Foundry push will matter.

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