Bitcoin Lags 40% Below ATH as S&P 500 Sets New Record

Bitcoin’s relatively muted response to a thawing in the Middle East conflict contrasts sharply with the speed of the stock market’s recovery.

The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 7,022 on Wednesday, April 15, fully recovering from losses related to the conflict pitting the US and Israel against Iran in a matter of weeks.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has barely moved, and on-chain analyst Darkfost says the gap between the two assets has now stretched into its longest period of weak correlation since 2020.

Stocks Recover as BTC Sits 40% Below Its Peak

In a post on Wednesday, Darkfost laid out the contrast in detail. The S&P 500’s latest push to a record came against a backdrop of de-escalating US-Iran tensions, with markets having already begun pricing in a resolution after a weekend of diplomatic activity.

That move was reinforced by March Core PPI data coming in at 0.1%, well below February’s 0.3% reading and analyst expectations, pointing to a US economy largely insulated from energy-driven inflation feeding into production costs.

According to Darkfost, BTC has seen little of that lift, with the asset currently trading around $75,000, roughly 40% below its all-time high of over $126,000, set in October 2025, a gap that has persisted for several months.

“This period of weak correlation or even decoupling from the S&P 500 is the longest observed since 2020,” he wrote, noting that while Bitcoin usually tends to follow major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, it “still operates under its own internal dynamics at times, which can lead to this type of divergence.”

The S&P 500 rose 10 out of the past 11 trading sessions, gaining more than 10% across that period, and the speed of the recovery was historically unusual. Market data account Quantifiable Edges noted that the index went from a 100-day low to a 200-day closing high in just 11 days, something the S&P 500 has never done before, with the previous closest being 12 days in October 2014.

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However, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, speaking on CNBC’s Closing Bell on Wednesday, said he expects crypto to be among the leaders in the next leg of the rally alongside Mag7 and software stocks, arguing that many investors are still sidelined despite the new record, which sets up potential upside rather than capping it.

Bitcoin at a Technical Decision Point

BTC’s price picture adds another layer to Darkfost’s divergence observation, with analyst Ali Martinez saying earlier today that the asset is, for the third time in 6 months, testing the 100-day simple moving average as resistance, and according to him, the first test ended with a 30% rejection, going from about $116,000 to $80,000. That was in October last year.

The second one, in January, saw a drop of 39%, with Bitcoin moving from about $97,000 to about $60,000. A third rejection, he says, would be a “major structural failure” that could produce a triple-top effect and send BTC back toward the yearly low near $60,000.

But it’s not all bad news, as the analyst thinks a break above the 100-day SMA would open the path toward $80,000 to $84,000.