Ceasefire odds by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. Talks involve the US, Iran, and mediators pushing for a 45-day ceasefire to restart negotiations.
Traders remain skeptical. The April 7 market is nearly flat, showing doubt about immediate progress. The April 15 and April 30 markets show slight optimism, with odds at 6% and 18% YES, respectively.
Traders expect movement in late April or May. Odds jump 19 points between April 30 and May 31, suggesting a potential catalyst.
Trading volume hit $431,402 in USDC across all ceasefire markets yesterday. The April 7 market’s $22,948 in USDC shows thin liquidity — $12,352 moves it 5 points. In contrast, April 30 requires $19,925 for the same move, indicating more depth.
Ceasefire talks face hurdles. Iran’s rejection of US demands and insistence on permanent guarantees keep odds low for a quick resolution. Trump’s deadline could escalate tensions. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved — a 100x return. Belief in a rapid breakthrough within four days is needed.
Watch for last-minute changes from Trump or intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Trump’s ultimatum deadline is Tuesday, April 7, at 8 PM ET. Any shift towards “productive” or “deal” could impact odds.
Markets Impacted
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