Trump will sign an order to pay DHS employees during the Democrat-led shutdown. Iran is working with Oman on a protocol for the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Traders adjusted their positions, with odds rising for later dates. The April 30 market increased to 38% YES from 36%. The May 31 market climbed to 56% YES, marking the largest recent gain. The protocol drafting hints at diplomatic moves, which traders see as a sign of possible de-escalation.
Traders expect significant developments by late April. A 20-point jump between April 15 (18% YES) and April 30 (38% YES) suggests anticipation of a mid-April catalyst. Near-term odds for an April 7 ceasefire remain low, indicating skepticism about immediate progress.
Trading volume is high, with $1,365,780 in daily USDC traded across these markets. The April 15 market alone sees $594,502 daily, showing strong interest. With $43,954 needed to move the price 5 points, this market has depth, indicating a broad trader base.
Iran and Oman’s diplomatic steps are promising for ceasefire bets. However, without scheduled talks or named intermediaries, these are early signals. At 8¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, offering a 12.5x return for those betting on a quick resolution. Belief in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough is essential for this bet.
Watch for statements from Oman or Qatar on mediation progress. Any mention of talks or softened rhetoric could significantly shift odds.
Markets Impacted
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