Deeper Correction or Bounce-Off Next?

XRP struggled to sustain its recent momentum as it failed to reclaim the $3 mark. After enjoying a relatively strong weekend that kept sentiment leaning positive, selling pressure emerged on Monday, which pushed the price back down to $2.95.

The correction phase may not be over yet, as on-chain data points to rising exchange inflows across multiple value bands, a pattern that is often linked to profit-taking behavior.

XRP at Crossroads

Historically, XRP’s major peaks, such as $3 in 2018, $1.9 in 2021, and $0.9 in 2023, were all preceded by significant spikes in exchange deposits. CryptoQuant explained that this means investors and whales sent tokens to trading platforms to realize gains.

Entering 2025, XRP surged to the $3.5-$4 range, and inflows, particularly from large holders in the 100K-1M+ XRP range, reached exceptionally high levels. Such moves strongly imply that whales are beginning to offload holdings and introduce increased short-term selling pressure.

Currently, the crypto asset is consolidating below $3, yet inflow levels remain high, thereby keeping downside risks in focus. Should the selling pressure intensify, a pullback toward the $2.8 support zone appears plausible.

However, if the crypto asset is able to reclaim and hold $3 level, it could serve as a critical base for the next bullish advance. The key resistance area sits at $4.2-$4.5, and a successful breakout above that range could pave the way for a new price discovery phase.

Structurally, the analysis revealed that XRP is stronger than during past cycles, and has maintained a firm long-term uptrend. Therefore, while the short-term outlook indicates caution, the broader trajectory still supports the possibility of XRP targeting $5 or higher later in 2025.

These on-chain signals are consistent with Elliott Wave forecasts.

Make-or-Break Level for XRP

Elliott Wave analyst Avi Harkishun spoke about two key scenarios based on critical support levels. In his tweet, Harkishun noted that as long as the current $2.95 level holds firm, XRP retains a bullish structure. The next upside target is projected between $4.00 and $4.40.

However, he also outlined a cautionary path – if $2.95 breaks decisively, XRP could enter a corrective phase through a WXY double correction pattern, and potentially retrace toward $2.40 at the high-volume node, an area of historically strong liquidity. In short, the altcoin’s next move will be determined by whether buyers can defend the $2.95 threshold or whether sellers force a breakdown.

Other market commentators are also weighing in on XRP’s next move. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, for one, struck a bullish tone, as he tweeted that “it won’t take long before the token is back at $3.70!”