Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin fell below $77,000 following the US announcement of a 104% tariff on Chinese imports.
- Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession to 45%, while JPMorgan sees a series of Fed cuts starting in June.
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Bitcoin dropped below $77,000 today after US President Donald Trump announced a 104% tariff on Chinese imports, escalating trade tensions that have unsettled global markets since April 2.
The tariff announcement sparked volatility across risk assets, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing sharp intraday gains of around 4% before retreating to erase most of their daily gains.
Bitcoin followed a similar pattern, briefly surging above $80,000 before falling below $77,000.
Ahead of the tariff rollout, President Trump engaged in talks with allies like South Korea and Japan, sparking brief market optimism.
The White House said nearly 70 countries had reached out seeking trade agreements, and Trump described the talks as a “beautiful and efficient” process.
Despite these negotiations, he confirmed that the 104% tariffs on Chinese imports would proceed, set to take effect at 12:00 AM on April 9.
China commented on Monday in response to Trump’s earlier tariff threat, vowing to “fight to the end” and rejecting what it called “US blackmail,” signaling little chance of compromise.
The economic fallout has prompted renewed concerns about a slowdown. Goldman Sachs recently raised its forecast for a US recession to 45%, citing tightening financial conditions and growing trade uncertainty.
In parallel, JPMorgan now expects the Federal Reserve to begin a series of rate cuts starting in June 2025, with one cut at each meeting and an additional reduction in January, bringing the upper bound of the benchmark policy rate to 3%.
Adding to the cautious tone, a Bloomberg report cited David Rolley, portfolio manager and co-head of global fixed income at Loomis Sayles, who called the tariffs “the only tax they can hike” during a recent financial event.
His colleague Pramila Agrawal estimated a 60% chance of a US recession, while Andrea Dicenso, a multi-asset and EM debt strategist at Loomis Sayles, said investors are shifting to European and Latin American markets, which she sees as more stable than the US.
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